Local elections 2024: how bad must Tory results be to topple Rishi Sunak?

What do the parties hope to achieve at this week’s municipal contest? Sean O’Grady looks at the numbers

Rishi Sunak is looking for enough support to continue into the next election (AFP via Getty)

This week sees one of the biggest tests of public opinion in England and Wales since the 2019 general election, and with the next election now due they will also tell us a good deal about the state of the parties.

In all, there will be elections for: 10 directly elected or metro mayors; 2,636 council seats across 107 local authorities (comprising 31 city boroughs, 18 unitary authorities and 58 district councils); 25 members of the Greater London Assembly; and 37 police and crime commissioners.

Each of the major parties will have their own private hopes and fears about the outcome, and will apply the usual spin to the results. However, there are some clear benchmarks for each party, and implications for the timing of the general election by Rishi Sunak, and for electoral strategies.